Concerns are escalating regarding the potential for armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea as hostile rhetoric has intensified in recent weeks. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has publicly stated that access to the Red Sea is a vital matter for his landlocked nation, a claim that has drawn sharp rebukes from Eritrea. The two countries share a fraught history, marked by a bitter independence struggle that led to Eritrea’s secession from Ethiopia in 1993.
Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have often been strained, particularly since a border war erupted in 1998, resulting in over 100,000 casualties. In recent statements, Ethiopian leaders have reiterated claims over Eritrea’s southern port of Assab, located approximately 60 kilometers from the border. On September 1, Abiy described the loss of access to the Red Sea as a “mistake” that would soon be rectified. His remarks were echoed by Ambassador Bacha Debele, who declared that Assab was “Ethiopia’s wealth” and that it would be reclaimed “by force.”
The military posture in Ethiopia has also shifted. On October 25, army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula emphasized the growing population of Ethiopia, currently around 130 million, questioning why the interests of Eritrea’s two million people should take precedence. He stated, “We will strengthen our defence forces, speed up our development and secure a sea outlet.” In a similar vein, Major General Teshome Gemechu, head of military diplomacy, categorized the ownership of Assab as an issue of survival for Ethiopia.
Eritrea has responded cautiously to these threats. Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel has characterized Ethiopia’s demands as a “dangerous” irredentist agenda. On September 16, Eritrea’s government warned of serious consequences should Ethiopia pursue its claims aggressively. A notable statement from the Eritrean army on November 13 cautioned Ethiopian leaders against dragging the populace into conflict, alluding to severe repercussions for any attempts to cross “the red line.”
Currently, there are no significant military movements reported along the border. However, Ethiopian state television has showcased graduation ceremonies for thousands of cadets, framing the recruitment as a show of strength to potential adversaries. President Taye Atske Selassie has promoted senior military officers, asserting that Ethiopia’s military preparedness is “elaborate.”
In contrast, Eritrea has not conducted public military parades or announcements, though it maintains a mandatory national service that trains thousands annually. Reports indicate that the Eritrean government has imposed restrictions on troop movements, suggesting a strategy to maintain stability within its ranks.
Media outlets in both countries reflect the escalating tensions. Ethiopian state media have amplified the narrative that Ethiopia’s loss of access to the Red Sea was unjust and must be reclaimed. Local reports indicate the government has mobilized online agents to propagate this message, with some dubbing it a “digital army” of 60,000 individuals.
Conversely, Eritrean state media have accused Ethiopia of attempting to reignite settled disputes. Editorials have claimed that Ethiopia is trying to deceive the international community by reviving issues resolved decades ago. Some foreign-based Eritrean media, previously critical of the government, have begun to rally citizens to unite against perceived Ethiopian provocations.
The roots of the current tensions can be traced back over a century. Eritrea was governed by Italian colonizers from 1890 until the end of World War II, after which it became administratively linked to Ethiopia. Following a protracted civil war, Eritrea gained independence through a referendum in 1993. Initial cooperation between the two nations soured over border disputes, leading to war in 1998. Although a peace agreement was signed in 2000, implementation faltered, and the two countries remained adversaries until a peace overture in 2018 earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.
Despite brief periods of improved relations, particularly during Ethiopia’s civil conflict involving the Tigray region from 2020 to 2022, the relationship has deteriorated again, with hostile rhetoric signaling potential conflict in the Horn of Africa. The international community continues to monitor the situation as both nations navigate the complexities of their historical grievances and current tensions.
