NEWPORT BEACH, CA - OCTOBER 20: A water level marker is attached to a dock on Orange County's Balboa Island on October 20, 2018 in Newport Beach, California. The threat of rising seas prompted officials to raise the island's sea walls by 9 inches this year. The exclusive island sits in California's 48th District where Democratic congressional candidate Harley Rouda is competing for the seat against Republican incumbent Rep. Dana Rohrabacher. Climate change is one of the issues in the race as the 48th district includes a section of Southern California coastline with a number of beaches. According to a report by the nonprofit Union of Concerned Scientist in 2017, parts of Newport Beach may experience chronic flooding by 2035. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images) Democratic Candidates Push to Flip House Seats From Republicans In California
Recent research suggests that global sea levels are rising at a rate significantly lower than previously anticipated, contradicting many established scientific predictions. The study, conducted by Dutch engineering consultant Hessel Voortman and independent researcher Rob de Vos, found that the average sea level rise in 2020 was approximately 1.5 mm per year, equating to around 6 inches per century. This figure is considerably less than the 3 to 4 mm per year often reported in scientific literature and the media.
Voortman expressed surprise that no previous research had analyzed local data in this manner. “It is crazy that it had not been done,” he noted in an interview with journalist Michael Shellenberger. He embarked on this research journey in 2021, seeking to compare observed sea levels with projections but found no existing studies had undertaken this essential analysis.
This groundbreaking study was conducted without external funding, allowing for an unbiased approach. Voortman, a hydraulic engineer with three decades of experience in flood protection and coastal infrastructure, had previously published a paper indicating that sea levels along the low-lying Dutch coast had not accelerated, prompting him to investigate the situation on a global scale.
Investigation of Global Data
Voortman examined data from 200 tide-gauge stations, each with at least 60 years of records. He indicated that in most cases, the discrepancies between projected and observed sea levels were not significant. This finding suggests that there has been no detectable acceleration in sea level rise, challenging the conventional narrative that has dominated climate discussions.
Mainstream scientific studies have frequently indicated an acceleration in sea level rise over the past three decades, particularly following the advent of satellite imagery. However, Voortman asserts that sea levels were in a “trough” in 1993 and reached a “peak” in 2020. He argues that adjusting for these fluctuations reveals no substantial increase in sea levels.
In instances where notable rises were observed, Voortman pointed out that most of these stations were located near others showing negligible changes. This proximity makes it unlikely that a global phenomenon such as CO2-driven climate change is the primary cause. Instead, he attributes these local variations to factors including earthquakes, extensive construction, and post-glacial effects.
Implications for Climate Models
The study also critiques the models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), claiming they significantly overestimate local sea level rise for 2020. Voortman emphasized the importance of distinguishing between measurements and projections in engineering, particularly when designing coastal infrastructure. “Understanding the differences between them is crucial for practical applications,” he stated.
While Voortman calls for more accuracy in reporting sea level rise, he does not deny the existence of climate change or the value of predictive models. “It is important to stress that there are good reasons to have models,” he remarked, highlighting the need to plan for the future when engineers design coastal structures with a lifespan of 50 to 100 years.
This study presents a significant shift in the understanding of sea level dynamics, prompting a reevaluation of how climate change impacts coastal areas. As the debate continues, the findings may influence future climate discussions and infrastructure planning worldwide.
