Opposition says Maria Corina Machado would crush Maduro regime in fair vote but dictators deputy unlikely to support free elections
The political landscape in Venezuela remains tense as opposition leader Maria Corina Machado stands ready to claim a significant electoral victory, should elections be called. Supporters assert that she would win decisively in a fair election, despite the current regime’s grip on power under Nicolás Maduro‘s administration. This sentiment was echoed by both her party and international observers, highlighting the challenges for democracy in the nation.
During a recent interview, opposition party spokesman Pedro Urruchurtu Noselli revealed that even under oppressive conditions in the 2024 elections, the opposition candidate Edmundo González received approximately 67% of the vote, while Maduro garnered just 30%. These figures were derived from vote printouts obtained by the opposition, although Maduro’s regime disputes their validity. Urruchurtu emphasized, “Even with unfair conditions, intimidation and repression, we were able to show the magnitude of our victory.”
International Observers Doubt Democratic Progress
Machado, who won the opposition primary in October 2023 with an overwhelming 93% of the vote, was barred from running for office by Maduro. Urruchurtu described her and González as the only “legitimate and trusted leadership” for Venezuela, urging that they are prepared to implement immediate reforms. He stated, “That is who Venezuelans trust to lead a real transition — not only politically, but with real plans, real teams, and real programs.”
Despite these claims, the international community remains cautious. In a recent interview, Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State, branded the elections “illegitimate.” His comments align with the views of many within the opposition, who recognize Maduro’s continued influence as a barrier to genuine democratic processes. The U.S. administration has opted to engage with Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, who was recently sworn in as interim president. This decision has raised questions about the commitment to support the opposition.
Calls for Reform and Political Change
Urruchurtu voiced skepticism about Rodriguez’s willingness to foster democratic reforms, especially after she ordered the arrest of individuals celebrating Maduro’s recent capture. “How can you think reforms and democratization are possible when people are being persecuted just for posting online or expressing joy?” he asked. Observers fear that as long as Maduro’s allies remain entrenched in power, the prospect of free and fair elections remains bleak.
Former deputy of the National Assembly, Carlos Paparoni, expressed his confidence in Machado’s potential victory, stating, “With complete seriousness and responsibility, I tell you that there is no human way that Maria Corina can lose an election in Venezuela today.” A source familiar with U.S. strategy on Venezuela echoed this, claiming, “If it was a free and fair election tomorrow, MCM would win by 50 points.”
Experts, both within and outside the opposition, remain skeptical about Rodriguez’s intent to organize legitimate elections. Eva Golinger, a Venezuela expert and attorney, remarked that the possibility of holding elections is “still quite far from that possibility at the present time.” She noted that while some discussions of a political transition occur in the U.S. media, the situation in Venezuela has not significantly changed.
Urruchurtu further expressed concern that the existing regime, comprising the same individuals who dismantled democracy, cannot be trusted to facilitate its restoration. He insisted that any credible transition must begin with the immediate release of political prisoners and a halt to repression — actions that the current government has consistently refused to undertake. He emphasized, “The first signal must be freedom — freedom of expression, freedom for political prisoners, respect for human rights.”
Despite the challenges, the opposition remains hopeful. Urruchurtu expressed gratitude towards former President Trump for taking decisive action against Maduro, labeling his detention as a significant victory for the Venezuelan people. “The real day of liberation will be when the entire criminal structure is dismantled and the legitimate leadership takes office,” he stated. The opposition claims readiness to govern and collaborate with Washington, asserting that they can implement necessary reforms immediately.
As the situation evolves, the future of Venezuelan democracy hinges on the international community’s response and the possibility of creating conditions for free elections, a prospect that, for now, appears distant.
