URGENT UPDATE: A new Quinnipiac University poll reveals that Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro holds a commanding lead over Vice President JD Vance in a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup. Released today, the poll shows Shapiro with 53% support compared to Vance’s 43% in this critical battleground state.
As both politicians contemplate their political futures, Shapiro’s significant advantage underscores a shifting landscape in Pennsylvania. Among Democrats, Shapiro enjoys overwhelming support at 97%, while Vance captures 89% of Republican voters. However, the key demographic of independents favors Shapiro, with 58% indicating they would vote for him, compared to 33% for Vance.
The poll also highlights voter perceptions of the two candidates. Shapiro boasts a favorability rating of 58% against Vance’s 43%. Notably, Vance’s unfavorable rating stands at 47%, suggesting a challenging road ahead as he prepares for potential candidacy in the upcoming election.
Shapiro has emerged as a prominent figure in the Democratic Party, especially after being passed over for the vice presidential nomination alongside Kamal Harris in the 2024 election. With an impressive approval rating of 60%—the highest recorded since June 2023—Shapiro’s popularity is undeniable. Only 28% of voters disapprove of his governance, while 11% did not provide an answer.
If he runs for reelection, Shapiro appears to be well-positioned against Republican candidate Stacy Garrity, leading with 55% to Garrity’s 39%.
In contrast, former President Donald Trump has a 43% approval rating among registered voters in Pennsylvania, with a disapproval rating of 54%, indicating potential vulnerabilities heading into the future.
The poll was conducted among 1,579 self-identified registered voters in Pennsylvania from September 25-29, 2023, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, analysts will be closely monitoring both Shapiro and Vance’s next moves. Stay tuned for further updates as these developments unfold.
