BREAKING: A newly released report from PwC confirms that the U.S. and global box office revenues will not return to pre-COVID-19 levels until at least 2030. This urgent revelation, detailed in PwC’s annual media and entertainment outlook report on July 23, 2023, highlights the ongoing challenges facing the film industry.
Despite a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.9 percent, total cinema revenue in the U.S. is expected to rise from $8.9 billion in 2024 to only $10.8 billion by 2029. This is a stark contrast to the pre-pandemic revenue of $11.7 billion recorded in 2019.
PwC’s global entertainment and media leader, Bart Spiegel, stated, “Unfortunately, this full recovery is unlikely within the forecast period. However, we project that by the end of 2029, the industry will be on the brink of a full rebound.” Spiegel noted that while ticket prices are rising, admissions are not expected to return to the 1.3 billion seen in 2019.
The report outlines that U.S. admissions are projected to drop to 734 million in 2024 before rebounding to 778 million in 2025. By 2029, admissions are expected to reach 823 million, with average ticket prices climbing to $11.86. This signifies a notable increase of over $2 compared to the average price during 2020 and 2021.
The impact of recent industry strikes, including those by the Writers Guild of America (WGA) and SAG-AFTRA, has further complicated the recovery, causing production delays and fewer major releases. The report emphasizes that while U.S. cinema revenue fell to $8.9 billion in 2024 from $9.1 billion in 2023, this decline was anticipated and less severe than previously feared.
Globally, PwC forecasts that the box office will grow from $29.7 billion in 2024 to $37.7 billion by 2029, still falling short of the $39.4 billion achieved in 2019. “Industry revenues are ultimately driven by price times volume,” Spiegel added, highlighting the reliance on rising ticket prices rather than increasing attendance to fuel growth.
The report also sheds light on the ongoing trend of blockbuster films driving box office revenue, with Disney dominating the charts with titles like Inside Out 2 and Moana 2. However, mid-budget films are struggling, as audiences increasingly prefer watching these titles from home.
As cinema operators enhance their offerings with luxury seating and loyalty programs, consumer interest in the theatrical experience appears to be returning, particularly among younger audiences. Research from the National Association of Theatre Owners indicates a strong preference for opening weekend movie outings among 10-24-year-olds.
In a significant move, Sony Pictures recently acquired Alamo Drafthouse, marking the first major studio to invest in cinema ownership since anti-trust regulations were lifted. This could signal a shift in the industry as studios seek to regain control over production, distribution, and exhibition.
As the film industry grapples with these challenges, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic. The primary takeaway is clear: while recovery is underway, it will take several more years before the box office returns to its pre-pandemic heights.
Stay tuned for more updates on this developing story as the industry navigates its path forward.
