XRP continues to face resistance below the key threshold of $1.50, currently trading at $1.47 with a slight increase of 0.03% over the past 24 hours. Despite strong institutional inflows and increasing adoption, the token struggles to gain momentum. Analysts are closely monitoring factors such as the upcoming US Market Structure Bill and macroeconomic conditions that could influence XRP’s price trajectory.
Institutional Demand Signals Strength
Institutional interest in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has been a significant factor supporting XRP’s medium-term outlook. Following the launch of US XRP-spot ETFs, the total net inflows have reached an impressive $1.23 billion. The Grayscale XRP ETF (GXRP), introduced in November 2025, has attracted $131.46 million in inflows, reflecting a strong confidence from institutional investors. Ripple’s expansion, coupled with its recent US banking license, enhances the token’s practical applications, fostering positive expectations for its future price.
The developments surrounding the US Market Structure Bill have increased XRP’s sensitivity to regulatory changes. The previous momentum from legislative discussions contributed to a substantial 15% rally in a single day, underscoring how regulatory advancements can shift market sentiment. However, delays in Senate voting earlier this year caused a decline in XRP’s value, dropping from $2.4151 in January to $1.1227 in early February. The anticipated Senate vote and the potential passage of the bill could propel XRP towards $2.50 within the next four to eight weeks.
Macro Forces and Technical Analysis
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate expectations play a critical role in shaping investor sentiment and liquidity conditions. Additionally, the Bank of Japan’s evolving guidance on its neutral rate could influence global capital flows, particularly through yen carry trade operations. Strong economic data from the US, alongside ETF outflows, may exert downward pressure on XRP, increasing the likelihood of testing the psychological support level at $1.00.
On the technical front, XRP recently broke above the lower trendline of a falling wedge pattern, but it experienced a slight decline the following day, finding support near this trendline. As of Wednesday, XRP remains stable around $1.47. Should it close below the trendline, a decline towards the weekly support level of $1.30 could occur. Momentum indicators present a mixed picture, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating growing bearish pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggests underlying bullish momentum.
If the lower trendline holds as support, XRP may recover towards the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.71. Resistance levels are observed at $1.50 and subsequently at $2.00. A sustained move above $1.50 could signal the beginning of a near-term trend reversal, making XRP a focal point for traders and investors alike.
