A recent study conducted by economist Jacob Moscona from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology reveals that well-managed aid projects significantly contribute to reducing violence in developing countries. The research, which focused on World Bank initiatives in Africa, highlights the critical role of project oversight in determining the impact of international aid.
The findings indicate that aid programs with high evaluation scores can lower the chances of conflict by as much as 12% when compared to poorly managed initiatives. This insight addresses a long-standing debate regarding the relationship between aid and violence, suggesting that the quality of management is more influential than previously understood.
Management Quality Matters
According to Moscona, the effectiveness of aid projects hinges on how they are organized and managed. “I find that the management quality of these projects has a really strong effect on whether that project leads to conflict or not,” he states. The research indicates that while some studies have linked aid to increased violence, others have shown a decrease. Moscona’s work reconciles these differing perspectives by emphasizing that efficient management is crucial.
His paper, titled “The Management of Aid and Conflict in Africa,” is published in the November 2025 issue of the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy. It draws on data from the World Bank covering the period from 1997 to 2014, utilizing information compiled by AidData, a nonprofit organization focused on aid effectiveness.
The research highlights that effective management strategies can mitigate risks associated with aid distribution, such as resource misappropriation. For example, regular monitoring of food distribution can significantly reduce theft or diversion of supplies. Innovative methods have also been implemented to ensure that resources are effectively utilized by intended recipients.
Impact of Local Conditions
Moscona’s analysis combined World Bank data with statistics from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), enabling a comprehensive understanding of how project leadership affects local violence. The findings reveal that the performance of project leaders is critical; shifting from a leader in the 25th percentile for conflict management to one in the 75th percentile can increase the likelihood of local conflict by 15%.
Interestingly, the study notes that the establishment of aid programs does not typically provoke long-term strategic actions from non-governmental forces, such as land seizures or the formation of rebel bases. Instead, it is the arrival of desirable resources that can incite violence, particularly in areas with recent histories of political unrest.
Moscona explains, “You don’t see much conflict when the projects are getting off the ground. You really see the conflict start when the money is coming in or when the resources start to flow.” This insight underscores the importance of effective management in leveraging aid to foster stability rather than conflict.
The research also notes that armed conflict tends to be more pronounced when aid resources are easily diverted, such as food and medical supplies. In contrast, infrastructure projects tend to attract less conflict.
Moscona’s study contributes significantly to the discourse on international aid, highlighting that the quality of project management can lead to positive outcomes. His goal is to reshape the narrative surrounding aid, encouraging a less defeatist view regarding its potential negative consequences and emphasizing the role of effective administration.
As aid continues to be a vital component of development efforts worldwide, the insights from this research may inform how organizations like the World Bank approach future initiatives. By focusing on management quality, there is potential to enhance the effectiveness of aid programs and reduce the risk of conflict in vulnerable regions.
For further details, readers can refer to Moscona’s article in the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy.
