President Donald Trump is facing a significant decline in his approval ratings, particularly among independent voters, which poses a serious threat to the Republican Party’s prospects in the upcoming 2026 midterm elections. According to data from CNN’s chief data analyst, Harry Enten, the current numbers indicate a challenging landscape for Republicans as they attempt to maintain control of Congress.
Recent polling reveals a stark picture, with Trump’s net approval rating hovering around a dismal range. In the latest figures, the president’s approval rating has fallen to a low of -26, according to the Associated Press-NORC poll. Even in the more favorable Marquette University Law School survey, Trump’s rating is still a troubling -14. Enten described this period as potentially the most challenging for Trump during his second term, emphasizing that the statistics are “atrocious.”
The president’s approval rating with independents has drastically declined, now showing a net approval of -34. This marks a significant drop from the beginning of his first term when he was only four points underwater with this crucial demographic. “When you are 43 points underwater with independents, you know you’re doing terribly,” Enten noted, underscoring the dire situation Republicans find themselves in.
If these trends continue, the implications for the Republican Party could be severe. Enten warned that maintaining a majority in the House of Representatives would become increasingly difficult. “If this holds for next year’s midterm election, wave, ‘adios, amigos. Goodbye, see you later’ to that House Republican majority,” he stated. The Senate majority is also at risk if Trump cannot regain favor with independents.
The current political climate suggests that Trump’s strategies are failing to resonate with independent voters, who are crucial for electoral success. Enten’s analysis points to a growing discontent among this group, indicating that “they despise him at this point.” The need for Trump to reconnect with independent voters has never been more pressing, as the stakes for the Republican Party grow higher.
As the 2026 midterm elections approach, Republicans may need to reassess their campaign strategies and consider the factors contributing to Trump’s declining approval ratings. The party’s ability to maintain its majority may hinge on whether Trump can successfully pivot and regain the trust of independents before voters head to the polls.
