As the midterm elections draw closer, polling data reveals significant challenges for both President Donald Trump and the Democratic Party. Recent surveys indicate a troubling landscape for Democrats, who may find themselves grappling with unfavorable conditions as they seek to regain power. Despite President Trump’s declining approval ratings, his opponents are faring even worse, raising concerns for the Democratic campaign strategy ahead of the elections.
Polling aggregators indicate that Trump’s approval rating currently stands at approximately 43 percent, with a disapproval rating hovering around 53 to 54 percent. This marks a sharp decline since his initial term, making him the least popular president in his first year, with the exception of his own record in 2017. During the 2018 midterms, Trump’s party managed to expand its control of the Senate, although they experienced a historic loss in the House, where Democrats gained 41 seats, their largest midterm gain since 1974.
Recent polling from CBS News and NBC News suggests that voters are increasingly dissatisfied with Trump’s handling of the economy. A CBS News–YouGov poll indicates that Trump is 24 points underwater regarding economic management, with only 38 percent approval against 62 percent disapproval. Similarly, an NBC News survey shows that just 34 percent of voters believe Trump has delivered on his economic promises, while 63 percent disagree.
While these figures may offer some hope for Democrats, their own polling numbers are less encouraging. The same surveys reveal that the Republican Party is still perceived as more capable of managing the economy. According to the CBS News–YouGov poll, only 28 percent of voters trust Democrats to handle economic issues, compared to 35 percent who favor the Republicans. An NBC News survey presents a slightly more favorable view for Democrats, with 37 percent trusting them against 38 percent for the GOP.
Democrats also face challenges on critical issues beyond the economy. On immigration, only 26 percent of voters believe Democrats would handle it better than Republicans, with 39 percent favoring Trump’s party. The situation looks even more grim for the opposition when it comes to border security, where just 22 percent support Democrats versus 53 percent for Republicans. On crime, 24 percent of voters trust Democrats, while 46 percent favor the GOP. The NBC News poll indicates that Democrats only lead on issues of protecting constitutional rights and health care.
With the midterms approaching, the generic ballot does not reflect the advantage Democrats would need to replicate their success from 2018. The Washington Post–ABC News–Ipsos poll shows Democrats leading with a mere three-point advantage on the generic ballot, a stark contrast to their 11-point lead in December 2017, just before the last midterms.
Republicans are aware of these polling trends and seem optimistic. James Blair, Deputy Chief of Staff for Legislative and Political Affairs, noted on social media that the current midterm outlook is favorable for the GOP compared to late 2017. “Key Takeaway: By historical standards, midterm outlook is fine for the GOP,” Blair remarked.
Despite his own unfavorable polling, President Trump has expressed confidence. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One last week, he claimed, “I have the best poll numbers I’ve ever had… I have the best numbers for any president in many years.”
As the political landscape evolves, both parties will need to navigate these insights carefully to strategize their approaches leading into the midterm elections. The coming months will be crucial as they address voter concerns and seek to solidify their bases.
