A recent discussion at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium highlighted the significant role of societal values, particularly the involvement of fathers, in declining fertility rates around the world. The session featured insights from Nobel laureate Claudia Goldin, who emphasized that traditional norms should not be overlooked as governments seek solutions to address these pressing demographic challenges.
As global birthrates continue to decline, many developed countries and several major emerging markets have seen their total fertility rates (TFR) fall below the critical benchmark of 2.1, the average necessary for a population to replenish itself. Nations such as South Korea, Japan, and China often dominate headlines, yet many members of the United Nations also report TFRs below this threshold. The implications of this trend extend beyond individual families; they affect economies, social safety nets, and overall productivity.
In particular, Singapore has struggled to increase its TFR, which remained just below 1 last year despite ongoing government incentives aimed at encouraging family growth. The financial burden of raising children weighs heavily on prospective parents, influencing their decisions on family size. Goldin’s research indicates that while women today enjoy greater educational opportunities and career prospects than previous generations, this shift has not directly translated into increased fertility rates.
Goldin argues that the desires of men and women are becoming misaligned when it comes to family planning. Historically, men have benefited more from maintaining traditional family structures. As long as men remain reluctant to adapt their roles, women may feel pressured to postpone or forgo motherhood altogether. Goldin asserts, “The more men can credibly signal that they will be dependable ‘dads’ and not disappointing ‘duds,’ the higher will be the birthrate.” This statement underscores the importance of men’s active participation in family life to boost fertility rates.
The challenges posed by an aging population, a direct consequence of declining fertility, are multifaceted. While technological advancements such as artificial intelligence may help mitigate some of these issues, the role of immigration remains a complex and politically sensitive subject. Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, acknowledged the significance of foreign workers in addressing labor shortages, although their presence in the workforce remains limited, representing only 3% of Japan’s total workforce while contributing over half of its growth from 2023 to 2024.
Unlike the 1970s, when population control measures were widely accepted, current discussions are focused on the potential repercussions of declining fertility. Chad Jones of the Stanford Graduate School of Business warns of the unintended consequences, including stagnating living standards and a decrease in innovation and research output. According to projections from the United Nations, the global population is expected to peak at approximately 10.3 billion in the 2080s before entering a decline.
Ultimately, significant changes in government policy may not be sufficient to reverse these demographic trends. A more profound shift in societal attitudes and expectations surrounding family life and parenting may be necessary to encourage couples to consider having more children. The evidence suggests that a collaborative effort between men and women, alongside supportive policies, could help address the challenges posed by the ongoing baby bust.
