Japanese arrivals to Hawaii are on track to recover in the latter half of 2025, despite an initially sluggish start to the year. Visitor industry representatives indicate that while overall numbers may end up slightly below last year, there is optimism for a stronger finish. The state of Hawaii heavily relies on visitors from Japan, making this rebound crucial for the local tourism infrastructure, particularly on Oahu.
According to the Department of Business Economic Development and Tourism (DBEDT), Japan is projected to see approximately **700,000** visitor arrivals by the end of this year, representing a **2.8% decline** from 2024. This translates to a reduction of about **19,599** visitors. Furthermore, Japanese tourists are expected to spend **$1.05 billion** in Hawaii, also a **2.4% drop** compared to 2024.
Eric Takahata, managing director for Hawai‘i Tourism Japan (HTJ), expressed confidence that the second half of 2025 will show significant improvement. He noted that visitor numbers are already increasing. “August should be one of the strongest months of the year for Japan arrivals,” Takahata stated, emphasizing that the booking pace for the year-end is quite promising.
By June, Hawaii had welcomed approximately **319,474** visitors from Japan, marking a **3.2% decline** compared to the same period in 2024, and a staggering **56.5% drop** from the first half of 2019. Additionally, spending by these visitors totaled **$470.4 million**, which was **3.3% below** the first half of 2024, and **54.4% down** from 2019 figures.
As the summer of 2025 progresses, Takahata has reported encouraging signs from Japanese travel sellers. He mentioned that airlines are responding to increased demand, with Japan Airlines (JAL) and All Nippon Airways (ANA) enhancing their capacities. “JAL is extending daily service to Kansai (Osaka) and Chubu (Nagoya) through January 2026, while ANA is maintaining twice-daily A380 service from Narita,” said Danny Ojiri, vice president of market development for Outrigger Hospitality Group. He added that both airlines are experiencing higher load factors than last year.
A Boost from Seasonal Travel
The anticipated uptick in visitor numbers corresponds with the Obon holiday, a significant period in Japan dedicated to honoring ancestors. This year, the Obon holidays fell from **August 13 to August 16**, and many Japanese travelers are expected to travel during this time. Some travel sellers are predicting a **20% increase** in arrivals compared to 2024.
Tetsuya “Ted” Kubo, president and CEO of JTB Hawaii, noted the favorable calendar for the Obon holiday. “If people took Tuesday off, they could have enjoyed nine consecutive days off,” he said. This scheduling has allowed for better planning among travelers.
Ojiri remarked that Outrigger’s beachfront properties saw strong bookings in August, a trend absent in recent years. “Japan Airlines reported an **8% increase** in summer seat capacity, carrying **23% more passengers** than last year,” he added, pointing to a renewed interest in travel to Hawaii.
Takahata highlighted the trend of travelers from Japan, who have been particularly sensitive to pricing, now opting to visit during peak seasons despite higher costs. This shift indicates a growing confidence among Japanese tourists in planning their trips.
Looking Ahead: Opportunities and Challenges
The recovery of the visitor market from Japan presents both opportunities and challenges. Jim Barahal, president and CEO of the Honolulu Marathon Association, noted that registrations from Japan for the JAL Honolulu Marathon events are currently **27% higher** than last year. As of mid-August, forecasts suggest between **12,000 to 13,000** Japanese entrants.
Barahal emphasized the importance of the marathon in boosting tourism. “The marathon is outpacing general tourism numbers from Japan, which is encouraging for the market moving forward,” he said. The marathon, scheduled to kick off with the Kalakaua Merrie Mile on **December 13**, is expected to attract a significant number of visitors.
Despite these positive developments, challenges remain. Ojiri pointed out that Japan’s overseas travel is up **14%** this year, but Hawaii still lags behind other international destinations. Mixed messages regarding U.S. immigration policies continue to create hesitance among potential travelers, particularly families and younger individuals.
Jerry Gibson, president of the Hawai‘i Hotel Alliance, acknowledged the need for a more coordinated marketing strategy to promote Hawaii as a welcoming destination. He emphasized the importance of reinforcing the message that Hawaii is safe and open to international visitors.
As 2026 approaches, HTJ’s budget has been reduced by **$900,000**, presenting further challenges. Nevertheless, Takahata remains optimistic, planning to emphasize messages that convey “Hawaii Welcomes You” to Japanese visitors. He noted that ongoing investments in marketing will likely yield positive outcomes.
In summary, while the road to recovery for Japanese visitor arrivals in Hawaii is not without its hurdles, the signs of improvement are evident. The combination of seasonal travel, increased airline capacity, and strong interest in events like the Honolulu Marathon positions Hawaii to potentially end 2025 with stable or even improved visitor numbers from Japan.
