UPDATE: Just hours after the MLB trade deadline on July 27, 2023, the San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners have become the most popular picks among bettors, significantly shifting their odds in the World Series futures market.
The Padres saw a dramatic shift in their odds, moving from +3500 to +2500 at ESPN BET following the acquisition of pitchers Mason Miller and JP Sears from the Athletics. Their odds continued to plummet to +1600 after adding first baseman Ryan O’Hearn and outfielder Ramon Laureano from the Baltimore Orioles. This surge also propelled San Diego from +1800 to +1200 to win the National League pennant.
Betting activity has surged, with DraftKings reporting that San Diego has attracted a staggering 23% of the total money wagered on the World Series, outpacing the next closest team, the New York Mets, at 14%. Additionally, ESPN BET indicates the Padres have secured 12.5% of the handle since the deadline, marking them as the third-most popular pick in the league.
Bettors are optimistic that the talent traded away will pay off this season. However, the stakes are high, as the Padres traded away five of their top seven prospects. Fans are hopeful this year’s trade strategy will yield better results than previous seasons, where they lost future stars such as Trea Turner and Max Fried in similar trades.
Meanwhile, the Mariners also made significant moves, starting at +2500 to win the World Series before acquiring third baseman Eugenio Suarez, considered a major asset in this year’s trade period. This deal quickly shifted their odds to +2000, and they further improved to +1400 after adding first baseman Josh Naylor from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Seattle’s odds for the American League pennant improved from +800 to +700.
Since the deadline, Seattle has seen a remarkable surge in betting interest, claiming 18.6% of the tickets and dominating with 30.5% of the handle in the World Series market on ESPN BET. Excluding the excitement from the Suarez trade, DraftKings notes that the Mariners have drawn a leading 17% of all bets since the deadline.
Despite a quieter approach at the trade deadline, the Los Angeles Dodgers remain the favorites to win the World Series, boasting odds of +240 at ESPN BET. Close behind are the Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies, both tied at +850. Other teams like the Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, and New York Yankees round out the top contenders at +1000.
However, not all teams benefited from the deadline. The San Francisco Giants saw their odds plummet from +4000 to 100-1 for the World Series, while the Minnesota Twins, following a significant fire sale, witnessed a staggering drop from 100-1 to 250-1.
As the dust settles on the trade deadline, the focus now shifts to how these new acquisitions will impact the teams’ performances in the coming season. Fans and bettors alike are eager to see if these bold moves will culminate in a championship run. Stay tuned for the latest updates as the MLB season unfolds.
