OPEC+ has decided to maintain its oil production levels, opting for stability in the market despite escalating geopolitical tensions among member states. During a virtual meeting on January 4, 2026, eight key producers—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—agreed to keep output unchanged through the first quarter of 2026. This decision extends a previous commitment made in November to pause production increases for the months of January, February, and March.
The group cited seasonal demand weakness during winter and a balanced market as reasons for the decision, despite a significant decline in crude prices last year. In 2025, oil prices decreased by more than 18%, marking the most substantial annual drop since the pandemic. This decline stemmed from supply growth surpassing demand, raising concerns about oversupply in the global market.
OPEC+ delegates highlighted that relatively low global inventories indicate a healthy market foundation, advocating for a cautious and flexible policy approach. They reiterated the availability of 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts that could be incrementally returned to the market depending on how conditions evolve. The producers emphasized their capacity to either extend or reverse additional voluntary reductions, including the 2.2 million barrels per day reduction announced in late 2023, underscoring flexibility as a central tenet of their strategy.
Geopolitical Strains and Market Strategies
The decision comes at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, over the conflict in Yemen. This development marks one of the most serious rifts between the two countries in recent decades. Additionally, the political situation in Venezuela has added another layer of complexity to the energy landscape. Following the seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Washington would oversee the country until a political transition occurs. However, analysts remain doubtful that this intervention would lead to an immediate increase in Venezuelan oil production.
Despite these geopolitical challenges, OPEC+ officials have affirmed that political crises will not dictate their supply policies in the near term. Compliance with the Declaration of Cooperation remains a top priority. Any excess production since January 2024 is expected to be fully compensated under the supervision of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee.
The group plans to reconvene on February 1, 2026, to reassess market conditions, compliance, and progress on compensation measures. As global markets prepare to open, OPEC+ is poised to navigate these complex dynamics while aiming to stabilize the oil market amidst ongoing uncertainties.
