UPDATE: New reports confirm that Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to reach a new all-time high in 2026, breaking its traditional four-year cycle pattern. This urgent forecast comes from Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, who cites weakening forces that previously drove Bitcoin’s price fluctuations.
In a note released on Monday, Hougan emphasizes that the environment for Bitcoin is shifting, with pro-crypto regulations and an inflow of institutional capital through Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) expected to sustain prices. “In our view, the forces that previously drove four-year cycles are significantly weaker than they’ve been in past cycles,” Hougan stated, highlighting the impact of new market dynamics.
Historically, Bitcoin has followed a four-year cycle, with three years of substantial gains followed by a pullback year. However, based on the recent halving in April 2024, which occurred over 18 months ago, 2026 should be a pullback year. Yet, Hougan challenges this notion, predicting that the institutional capital influx will accelerate, particularly as major financial institutions like Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo begin allocating funds into Bitcoin ETFs.
Just this month, Bank of America allowed its financial advisers to recommend Bitcoin ETFs, potentially channeling a portion of the bank’s $3.5 trillion in client assets towards crypto investments. This movement signals a significant shift in Wall Street’s approach to Bitcoin, with analysts from Grayscale echoing Hougan’s insights. Grayscale’s research suggests Bitcoin will establish new records in the first half of 2026 as the market transitions into what they call the “institutional era.”
Moreover, the macroeconomic landscape is shifting favorably for Bitcoin. Hougan noted that interest rate cycles are now positive for crypto, unlike the pressures faced in 2018 and 2022, when rising rates negatively impacted digital assets. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates three times in 2025 and is expected to continue easing next year.
Bitwise also highlights that Bitcoin’s volatility has significantly decreased over the past decade. In fact, Bitcoin experienced less volatile price changes than Nvidia throughout 2025. This trend is expected to continue, with predictions that Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks will diminish in 2026, allowing it to rise even as equities face valuation and economic growth concerns.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading near $87,000, down nearly 1% at the time of this publication. This price action underscores the urgency of the current situation, as investors and analysts prepare for possible shifts in the crypto landscape.
As the institutional interest grows and regulatory clarity improves, all eyes will be on Bitcoin in 2026. Market participants should watch closely for upcoming developments, particularly concerning ETF allocations and regulatory changes that could further influence Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Stay tuned for more updates as this story develops and the cryptocurrency market evolves.
