NEW YORK – In a concerning development for the US economy, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell by 5.4 points in June, reaching 93.0, down from 98.4 in May. This decline reflects growing unease among consumers about economic conditions, as revealed by the latest survey results released today.
Immediate Impact on Consumer Sentiment
The Present Situation Index, which evaluates consumers’ perceptions of current business and labor market conditions, dropped by 6.4 points to 129.1. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, measuring short-term outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions, decreased by 4.6 points to 69.0. This figure is notably below the threshold of 80, which often signals a potential recession.
Key Details Emerge
Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at The Conference Board, noted, “Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May’s sharp gains. The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration.”
19.0% of consumers said business conditions were “good,” down from 21.4% in May.
15.3% reported business conditions as “bad,” an increase from 13.7%.
By the Numbers
29.2% of consumers found jobs “plentiful,” a decrease from 31.1% in May.
18.1% said jobs were “hard to get,” slightly down from 18.4%.
Expert Analysis
Guichard further explained that consumers were less optimistic about future business conditions and job availability over the next six months. “Consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months, and optimism about future income prospects eroded slightly,” she added.
Consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations cooled to 6.0%, down from 6.4% in May.
Background Context
The survey highlighted consistent concerns among consumers, with tariffs and inflation remaining top of mind. While mentions of easing inflation increased slightly, geopolitical and social unrest concerns were marginally higher but still low on the list of issues affecting economic views.
What Comes Next
Looking ahead, consumers’ purchasing plans showed mixed trends. Plans to buy cars remained steady, while intentions to purchase homes declined. However, spending intentions for dining out, motor vehicle services, and visits to museums or historic sites saw a rise.
Purchasing plans for cars were at the highest level since December 2024.
Regional Implications
The decline in consumer confidence was observed across all age and income groups, with the sharpest drop among Republicans. This broad-based sentiment suggests potential challenges ahead for the economy, especially if consumer spending slows.
Timeline of Events
June 18, 2025: Cutoff date for preliminary survey results.
June 24, 2025: Release of the Consumer Confidence Index® results.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, conducted by Toluna for The Conference Board, provides real-time insights into consumer sentiment. The Conference Board will continue to monitor these trends closely, publishing updates on the last Tuesday of every month.
For more details, visit The Conference Board’s website at conference-board.org.
