NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel has expressed significant doubts regarding the readiness of SpaceX’s lunar lander version of the Starship for the upcoming Artemis 3 mission, currently scheduled for 2027. During a public meeting on September 19, 2023, panel members indicated that the Human Landing System (HLS) version of Starship could face delays of “years” due to various technical challenges.
Panelist Paul Hill reported that recent visits to SpaceX’s Starbase facility and discussions with company executives revealed serious concerns about the project’s timeline. “The HLS schedule is significantly challenged and, in our estimation, could be years late for a 2027 Artemis 3 moon landing,” Hill stated. A key issue identified is the need for successful cryogenic propellant transfer, crucial for refueling Starship in low Earth orbit before its lunar journey.
Delays in the development of the Starship version 3, which is designed for this type of operation, have compounded the problem. There are also ongoing enhancements to the Raptor engine, which powers the spacecraft. While Hill refrained from detailing the specific problems affecting the timeline, SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell acknowledged her concerns during a speech at World Space Business Week, particularly about the complexities of propellant transfer.
Despite these challenges, the panel recognized SpaceX’s significant achievements in space technology. Hill highlighted the rapid launch tempo of the Falcon 9 rocket, driven largely by the Starlink project, as a demonstration of unparalleled experience in spacecraft and booster manufacturing. He noted that no other competitor, whether governmental or commercial, has matched this level of manufacturing and operational efficiency.
However, this high production rate also introduces competing priorities that may adversely affect the development of Starship and the HLS, potentially impacting the Artemis mission schedule.
Concerns for the Artemis Program
In addition to the delays surrounding Starship, panel member Bill Bray raised broader concerns about the overall Artemis program. He confirmed that preparations for Artemis 2, set to launch in early 2026, remain on track. Nonetheless, he described the path forward for Artemis 3 and subsequent missions as “uncertain and a little murky.”
Bray emphasized that delays in both the HLS and Axiom Space’s development of new lunar spacesuits could jeopardize the planned lunar landing. “Any delay in the delivery of these programs places the planned lunar landing in jeopardy of postponement and/or significant delay,” he remarked. He further stressed the importance of critically assessing these programs within the context of the overall mission timeline to ascertain what is feasible and when.
The panel plans to continue its oversight of the Starship HLS program, including a thorough evaluation of the design and the critical cryogenic propellant transfer process in future meetings. As the Artemis program aims to return humans to the Moon, the challenges highlighted by the safety panel underscore the complexities involved in advancing space exploration initiatives.
