The frequency and intensity of air turbulence are expected to rise significantly in the coming years due to climate change, according to a growing body of research. This increase poses potential risks to passenger safety and airline operations, highlighting the urgent need for improved forecasting and mitigation strategies.
Air turbulence, often marked by sudden jolts that can unsettle passengers, is the leading cause of in-flight injuries. In the United States, there were 207 reported injuries on commercial flights from 2009 to 2024. While these numbers may seem small, the issue gained attention following high-profile incidents, including a recent Air Europa flight that injured 40 passengers and a Singapore Airlines flight that resulted in one death and numerous injuries.
According to John Abraham, a mechanical engineering professor at the University of St. Thomas, most injuries occur among unbelted passengers or cabin crew rather than from structural damage to aircraft. “Modern aircraft withstand turbulence, so the main risk is occupant injury, not loss of the plane,” he stated. Nevertheless, severe turbulence, defined as 1.5 times the normal force of Earth’s gravity, necessitates inspections of the aircraft. Such encounters occur approximately 5,000 times a year across the United States.
Understanding Turbulence Types and Climate Impact
Three primary types of turbulence affect flights: convective turbulence, mountain wave turbulence, and clear-air turbulence (CAT). Mohamed Foudad, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading, explained that convective turbulence is associated with rising or falling air currents from clouds or thunderstorms, while mountain wave turbulence occurs near mountain ranges. CAT, on the other hand, is invisible and is generally linked to jet streams—fast-moving winds in the upper atmosphere.
With climate change, the tropics are warming more rapidly at cruising altitudes than higher latitudes. This shift increases the temperature difference between these areas, resulting in heightened jet stream velocity and wind shear—sudden changes in vertical air currents that can trigger CAT. A study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres by Foudad and colleagues revealed a clear upward trend in turbulence frequency from 1980 to 2021, with increases observed in regions such as the North Atlantic and North America, ranging from 60 to 155 percent.
Further research led by Isabel Smith at the University of Reading found that for every degree Celsius of near-surface warming, winters could see a 9 percent increase in moderate CAT in the North Atlantic, with summers experiencing a 14 percent rise. Historically, winter has been the roughest season for turbulence, but warming is now intensifying CAT during summer and autumn as well.
Mitigation Strategies and Future Outlook
Increased turbulence is not the only concern associated with climate change; it is also expected to exacerbate storm frequency and severity. According to Robert Sharman, a senior scientist emeritus at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, turbulence encounters near thunderstorms are a significant contributor to turbulence-related accidents.
To combat these challenges, Foudad is currently investigating two strategies: optimizing flight routes to avoid turbulence hotspots and enhancing forecasting accuracy. Airlines are also adopting measures such as prompting passengers to keep seatbelts fastened more frequently and reducing cabin service during flights.
Emerging technologies hold promise for improving safety as well. Sharman noted the potential of onboard LIDAR systems, which utilize laser beams to detect subtle changes in air density and wind speed, thereby helping pilots navigate turbulent conditions more effectively.
Ultimately, addressing the root cause—greenhouse gas emissions—is critical. The aviation industry contributes approximately 3.5 percent of human-caused global warming. While airlines are exploring the use of cleaner fuels to minimize their environmental footprint, progress has been described as “disappointingly slow” by the International Air Transport Association.
As climate change continues to evolve, the aviation sector must adapt to ensure passenger safety and operational efficiency in an increasingly turbulent world.
